Tagged: forex market analysis

Change Your Thinking – Down Means Up

Let me ask you this…….

Just because half a countries people ( yes half……as the vote was so close ) have voted to leave the E.U ( yes that’s right – The U.K is now looking to separate ) does that mean their currency just goes in the toilet?

Off the top of your head, what evidence currently exists to support such an argument?

Quickly consider the opposite.

Could it not be very good news for the Great British Pound? Could this not also be seen as “great news” for Britain, the economy and the countries well-being longer term?

Can you quickly compile a list of the “pros and cons” for The U.K moving forward?

I thought not.

Consider the incredible power Great Britain holds with respect to the entire planets banking system, consider The Bank Of England…consider the ridiculous notion of “royalty” and the planets fascination with it. The Rothschild’s. Reptilian shape shifters….whatever – you nut.

Consider that the entire planets “trading community” just got caught on the wrong side of the trade with Brexit news smashing faces and erasing “trillions” from global equities.

Talk about fear. Talk about a wash out. And for what?

For another 2 years of legal banter, political negotiations, bunk news headlines and the likes?

Change is upon us. You hate that. You fear it….and more than likely don’t really understand it.

The pound (GBP ) now back up a couple hundred points. The U.S Dollar down and ripe for the turn.

You see where I’m going with this?

Change your thinking………down means up.

Back On The Big Short – The U.S Dollar

Knowledge is power right? Or so they say….

So…..if you’ve only got a view of oh…let’s say just a small portion of the market ( maybe a couple of blue chips, gold) and perhaps the U.S Dollar “against” your own local currency well…..one might suggest adding a couple more “market indicators” to the pile.

I know you may find this incredibly hard to believe, maybe even IMPOSSIBLE to believe but….The U.S Dollar “spike” here in the wake of Brexit market madness will soon provide one of the greatest “short opportunities” of our time ( slight exaggeration perhaps ).

While you’re all drooling over the massive moves “upward” against both the EUR and GBP ( no kidding right? As the vast majority of traders got “wacked” by Brexit ) The U.S Dollar “continues to sink” against its arch rival ( or at times good buddy ) the Japanese Yen (JPY).

The two are now almost at par.

Now….for those with near term memory loss – do you remember the continued explanation here at Kong with respect to money flows on this planet? The safe havens / funding currencies such as JPY going absolutely “parabolic” during times of “risk aversion”? The money that comes “flooding back” to these this currency as large-scale “carry trades” are wound down? Well……if you think the U.S Dollar is strong right now……why is it getting its ass kicked by the Yen? Why is USD losing all support / falling like a rock against JPY?

That’s what I call JPY stength. That’s what I call “risk off”.

The U.S Dollar will soon follow….providing for large scale gains SHORT USD against any number of currencies.

I will again be waiting for a daily “swing high” in USD ( likely within the next 3-4 days tops ) for another joyous ride “back on the big short” – USD.

Pack yer bags…this could be a loooong journey.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Brexit Actually Happens! – Speculators Washed Away

“Brexit” –  I can’t stand these catch phrase / trending terms –  “Brexit”.

Although rather fitting in this case right…..who would’a thunk?

The hoity toits of Great Britain have actually pulled the plug on remaining a part of The E.U. Currency markets ( not to mention equity markets! ) are flipping out. Truly “exciting times” we live in today.

Now…..the question begs –  WTF? ( what the f*$k? )

Is this an economic issue? Political? Or……..perhaps even more telling – an IMMIGRATION ISSUE?

You don’t see it as close to home – like the Brits do. Things are clearly getting out of hand with respect to the huge numbers of people now “displaced” due to the insanity raging in the Middle East. the British people have stood up and said “hey!” We can’t just stand by and watch our great nation “dilute”.

Touchy stuff for sure – as I am a globalist.

The “movement of human beings on this earth” has accelerated considerably over the past few years, and has now gone “parabolic”. There is true and legitimate “fear” out there, as people ( mostly narrow-minded and slow ) hold tight to what they know…..what they understand –  what they feel is “safe”.

I don’t see this as an economic issue ( although that will come next ) but more so as another indication of the larger issue at hand….and the larger issue on most people’s minds. People are moving! The world is shrinking! People are starting to freak out.

Keep in mind Britain’s place on the global stage. They OWN the banks. They are all-powerful in ways the common man may never truly absorb/understand. The British Pound ( GBP ) isn’t going anywhere as the world’s “elite” hold it in vast quantities. They’ve already built their spaceships…and paid for it in pounds.

I’m curious to see what “spin” the two America clowns running for President put on it. The timing couldn’t be better.

In any case…..catch the news tomorrow morning, and expect all kinds of fireworks. I’ve not posted or traded for well over a month now – essentially proving a point.

Remember Apple short at 111.00? Remember suggestions that”2100″ in SP 500 was the high water mark? You’ve spent the last few months pulling out your hair trying to figure this out.

I’ve got a killer tan and cash in the bank. Hairline intact.

 

Forex_Kong_Kongdicator

 

 

 

Stop And Reverse – Day 3 Already

Why not take a quick second to blow my own horn right? I mean…….why not!

Day 3 of the full “stop and reverse” on The U.S Dollar – timed exactly,faultlessly, superbly, superlatively, excellently, flawlessly, to perfection, without fault, ideally, inimitably, incomparably, impeccably, immaculately, exquisitely, consummately. Bang! After week s of pure profit on the short side….3 days straight up long. Job well done for those of you that actually trade.

In any case…..always a great feeling when you nail one….or two – maybe 3 in a row, as it certainly makes up for the couple that you get 100% completely wrong.

By the strength of the move in USD I think it’s fair to say we’ve got ourselves an intermediate bottom, a fantastic entry and many more days of upside so it’s unlikely I’ll be changing my tune over the next few weeks. Mind you….I will be there for the next turn lower…you can count on that.

This is a great time to get those gold and silver miners back on your radar, and start zooming in to find solid areas of support. I hope these little babies fall hard, as the longer term reversal is now so…. major weakness will provide buying opportunities.

Rock n roll people.

Hope you’ve managed to make a buck er two. I’m back on the beach.

 

 

Forex_Kong_Beach

 

 

 

 

Mind The Hammer – Japanese Candles Tell All

Can you see the candle formation currently forming on $DXY – The U.S Dollar Index? That’s reversal shit there.

A hammer is a type of bullish reversal candlestick pattern, made up of just one candle, found in price charts of financial assets. The candle looks like a hammer, as it has a long lower wick and a short body at the top of the candlestick with little or no upper wick. In order for a candle to be a valid hammer most traders say the lower wick must be two times greater than the size of the body portion of the candle, and the body of the candle must be at the upper end of the trading range.

When you see the hammer form in a downtrend this is a sign of a potential reversal in the market as the long lower wick represents a period of trading where the sellers were initially in control but the buyers were able to reverse that control and drive prices back up to close near the high for the day, thus the short body at the top of the candle.

After seeing this chart pattern form in the market most traders will wait for the next period to open higher than the close of the previous period to confirm that the buyers are actually in control.

Two additional things that traders will look for to place more significance on the pattern are a long lower wick and an increase in volume for the time period that formed the hammer.

And here’s the kick in the face for those thinking this market is still properly correlated –  stocks taking a hit.

Complete and total gong show out there folks…..stick to what you know and don’t even try to understand it day to day.

I’m full stop and reversal on USD with orders sitting above and below. Japan may well have more to show us this evening….but we’ll just have to wait til then.

When gold and silver mining companies pull back here ( on USD strength ) BOOM! – Entry of a lifetime coming very soon. I shall keep you posted.

 

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Trading Is Art – Filter Out The Noise

The U.S Dollar likely has a few more days of downside before petering out and completing this last leg lower, so you can feel free to hang on – at least another couple of days short.

HOWEVER!

It’s  quite possible that this last leg down may mark “the end” of an intermediate down trend, where in the bounce ( and possible trend change ) could be quite dramatic.

Myself…..I’m going to close my few open positions over the next day er so…..then consider “mission accomplished” short / medium term shorting USD.

If indeed we see an intermediate cycle complete –  a full stop and reversal in USD related trades could soon provide another “easy trade” in catching it so early. Obviously pairs such as EUR/USD as well GBP/USD will provide fantastic vehicles here, as well as long USD/CAD and USD/JPY ( but I’d be sure to really wait on these ).

So you see? This is traaaaaaading. Trading yes. Not beating down on The U.S Dollar like I give a rat’s ass about one particular currency or another. This is making money in a market “regardless of direction”. This is charting, this is macro economic analysis, this is timing – this is art, not some bullshit rhetoric aimed at keeping you invested and ultimately cleaned out.

You can do it…….you’ve just got to turn your biases off. You’ve got to learn to think for yourself, and filter through the noise.

Kathy Lien – Completely Wrong About USD

Another CNBC talking head pushing her latest headline: Fed Statement Is Good News For U.S. Dollar

How do these “supposed” industry analysts get this stuff so completely and totally wrong?? While a simple off planet ape keeps getting it right?

Kathy Lien Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management is obviously just another cog in the media wheel, sputtering out mindless garb aimed at keeping you trusting, keeping you in belief that the financial systems are stable and working in your favor.

Overnight here in the jungle, The U.S Dollar has finally broken support – after trading sideways for essentially the entire month, and things look very ugly in Japan. The Nikkei is now down -630 ( 3.6 % ) and USD has absolutely dive bomb a full 300 pips vs JPY. The short USD trade will finally pay “the big one” allowing me to finally purchase the magnets and nuclear material I need to get back home.

The profits are staggering. Thank you Kathy –  for selling the retail trading community “exactly what I needed” to catch the vast majority of them on the wrong side of the trade. I will be closing these trades immediately ( as many will just now look to get in ) and continue to place smaller trades “under the action”.

It will be interesting to see how the next couple trading days go there in the U.S. That ol saying ( however cliché ) Sell in May – Go away. I don’t really buy it. So we’ll see.

Future_Kong_Nuclear

Future_Kong_Nuclear

 

 

Step Outside – Embrace Death – Start Living

You think I could pull this off if I was scared?

I know you……..

Well…..I know some of you.

I know a handful of successful people who kick around here on occasion – likely getting  a bit of a charge out of good ol Kong as….these are people who have weathered their own storm, and can relate. People who’ve made sacrifice, people who’ve taken chances. People who’ve thrown “caution to the wind” to realize their dreams.

People that recognize you don’t get anything for free in this world, and that nothing…..and I mean NOTHING can stop you if you work hard and believe in yourself.

Is that you?

Or are you some “lurker” here fishing for a “free tip” –  hoping you’ve lucked into the “lotto blog” and your wildest hopes/dreams will be instantly realized in doing what I say…..no effort….no sacrifice……no “self belief”?

Have you lost your mind?

In any case……….

I’ve been invited to a party this evening. A friend here in Playa. A very successful gent from Holland running a very successful beach bar and club. A celebration of birth on a level you’ll likely never see in your life.

I’ll pass thank you.

This is how it works for me…….

I’m not much for “birth” as much as I am for dieing.

If I didn’t approach it this way –  how could I have lived this incredible life?

If I didn’t have complete and total belief / conviction that this “brief time in human form” was exactly that well….how could I possibly have done the things I’ve done? Imagine if I lived a life “in fear”?? How could I know what’s possible?

Do you know what’s possible? Do you know what you are capable of? Are you scared to die –  or perhaps scared of living? Do you think you know the difference?

Total bullshit.

The sooner you start thinking/believing  you are “eternal” and that this “brief stint as a werkin joe” is just a stop over – the sooner you and I start getting along.

Don’t do anything stupid ( short of the standard stupid shit we do ever day ) but seriously….

Step outside. Embrace death…….and you never know – you might just start living.

This blog is gonna change soon. I’m bored stiff with the simple math of  trading.

Psychology coming soon to a theatre near you.

Stay tuned er bug off.

Thoth

Thoth

 

 

 

 

 

The U.S Dollar – Back On The Downside

Did you enjoy the tiny gains made “long USD” some days ago?

I didn’t think so.

I’m getting back on the “short train” with USD as the “6 day long suggestion” has obviously run it’s course.

This daily cycle looks to have rolled over as early as day “3” so once again we are looking at a left translated cycle – following the previous failed daily cycle so…….down we go.

It might be a touch late to jump into pairs such as GBP/USD or EUR/USD so I would suggest waiting for a small intra day pullback “or” placing limit buy orders “above” today’s action and waiting to get picked up on momentum.

Are you still hanging long? Why would you do that?

The next leg lower has lots of room to fall.

I like when things fall, as fear is far more motivating than greed. I’m here to trade, and that usually works out best when people start getting scared.

But you’re not worried about anything are you?

 

 

USD Cycle – New Daily Cycle Begins

The short USD Trade has been all too kind.

Have a peak at some “marketing timing” as a new daily cycle now begins for USD. I’m obviously 100% completely cash.

For the brave at heart – full reversal trade here….feel free to take a couple of days on the long side if you like.

Not for me….as I trade with the trend, but I’m sure you’ll squeeze a couple of days ( maybe as many as 6 ) long here if ya like. Have at it.

I’m hitting the oysters hard. No plans to trade for at least the coming week.