Tagged: trading tips

Long JPY – Kong Nails It Again

It’s one of the most counter intuitive trade concepts out there….and not surprisingly – also one of the most lucrative as the vast majority of retail traders continue to find themselves on the wrong side.

The Japanese Yen has been one of the largest contributing factors to the seemingly never-ending rally there in the U.S , as the Bank of Japan ( some time ago ) obeyed their master ( The U.S Fed ) as always…..printing Yen like mad and taking some heat off USD.

Yen then borrowed at 0% – and used to pump U.S Equities. It’s called the Carry Trade….and the big banks love it.

Until it’s time to unwind of course. Fast and furious, leaving the majority of retail traders in the dust…The Yen literally “takes off into the upper atmosphere” when risk ( U.S Equities ) is sold….and all those little Yen head back to Japan.

You are seeing a small example of that this morning with AUD/JPY trade now well in profit ( hey! Wasn’t that suggested a few day ago?? ) as well as nearly every single JPY pair making reasonable moves.

If you take anything away from this blog short of the odd chuckle – put this in your tool box. It will make you some serious coin.

Members! – The site is still down as these morons just can’t get it figured out ( hosting is so difficult right? GRRRRR!! ) Pick up here in the short term and we’ll be back up and running pronto.

 

 

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Open Your Mind – Aud/Jpy Is Next To Fall

I sound like a broken record.

Simply put ( for the 10,000th time ) The Japanese Yen takes huge inflows when risk comes off…..and commodity related currencies such as The Australian Dollar sell off hard.

You’ve got the best of both ( no shit sunshine ) when trading the pair – AUD/JPY….taking advantage of large moves ( in opposite directions ) of BOTH currencies.

This is the kind of thing currency traders really look for.

Take a quick peak at AUD/JPY on a daily chart….and once again plot the beloved 200SMA.

See anything you like?

No brainer here “price wise” as this retracement in an obvious downtrend screams “sell”.

You have to keep in mind though……price and time are two different things. This is a great level to start thinking short the pair…….regardless of how long it bounces around at the 200.

Me? I’m getting under it with sell orders a full 100 pips below. If she screams higher ( doubtful ) then I’m not in the trade ( get it? ) – job well done.

When she falls…..I get picked up on momentum.

Eezy peezy.

You have to learn to let the market come to you…….stop chasing shit all over your screen.

 

 

QE5 Coming To Americans – Sad But True

You know….it’s a tragedy really.

A sad, sad story of deceit.

Unfolding slowly at first, then ramping to climax when “least most expected”.

Think of  all the talk in the news…..rates hike expectations, and the “anticipation” surrounding this glorious event when essentially the U.S Fed will “put a stamp” on the economic recovery – and do the right thing.

A rise in interest rates ( as detrimental as it would be to the already “anemic economy” ) would tell the rest of the world that “everything has gone according to plan”, “we’ve done what was needed, and now it’s time for a return to normalcy”. Not gonna happen.

Consider that today’s horrible U.S jobs report ( far lower job growth than forecast ) is just another reason for The Fed to hold off on normalizing rates. Imagine that now……BAD JOBS NUMBERS allow the Fed to just keep on with the only thing it knows how to do . The only thing it “can do” in order to stop the U.S from falling off the cliff into complete and total economic collapse. You got it. You’re getting better at this.

Just print more money.

I predict “at best” a small quarter point raise some time next year – (if that…and only to appease the masses for a short period of time) before the Fed cranks up the printing presses for QE4, QE5 – crushing the U.S Dollar and finally pushing The U.S to the brink.

Perhaps on the heels of some juicy news that Russia has now done this….or China has now done that when really….as I think its become quite clear over the past few years…it’s THE FED that has done this.

As American citizens sit and watch this sad drama unfold…………………..from the cheap seats of course.

I remain short risk as this has been the best trade of the entire year ( going back several weeks now ) and I will “double down” later this year on complete and total U.S Dollar destruction.

Thank you U.S Fed.

You make this sooooo easy.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Short Humanity – Long Interplanetary Travel

The wait has been brutal, and the USD pairs “wide-ranging behavior” has made it very difficult to pick a specific level, and feel “good” about nailing an entry.

Patience has been pushed to the limit, as the daily volatility continues to wipe out the small guys.

I dare say it again…..but we should see the waterfall commence here very , very soon.

With continued concentration on the JPY pairs vs AUD, NZD and CAD – what can be said?

These trades continue to produce, now I dunno….several hundreds of pips ( 1000’s cumulatively ) in the green.

If you’ve still got a couple pennies in your jeans…..remain short…add short risk as we are clearly moving lower ( and in my view even lower ).

Interestingly……you can’t have a low in Oil…….without a high / turn in USD ( as oil is priced in USD )

I remain short risk…..long JPY and short USD….and as suggested some weeks ago – Feel free to take a look at the profits come mid/late October.

Bloglodytes Unite! – Intro To Economics

Q: What did the midget say when I asked him for a dollar?

A: “Sorry bud……………………………………….I’m a little short”.

Feel free to pull the trigger anywhere in here today, as most currency pairs have done what was expected – providing for fantastic entries here “short USD” and short “risk in general”.

You’ll see a number of the other usual correlations play out ( as this is so straight forward and obvious ) with commodities moving higher as “the currency that they are priced in” slides lower, then lower…….and lower some more. And yes folks…..even gold and silver!

Again I marvel at the “hoards of financial bloglodytes” peddling this kind of information for money.

This is about as common knowledge as it gets.

Literally……”Introduction to economics 101″.

 

 

A Forex Plan Moving Forward – Risk Off

The down trend in Japanese Yen ( and subsequent rise in risk appetite ) now looks to be “officially broken”. We clearly understand the relationship here.

It would take an awful lot to imagine pairs such as AUD/JPY or CAD/JPY reversing here, and putting in new highs. Very unlikely.

I am looking to start ( in typical fashion – with single contract entries ) short positions in any number of JPY related pairs with particular focus on JPY vs AUD, NZD, CAD ( the commodity related currencies ).

In general I expect to see JPY rise…..and USD fall along side risk.

I would be wary of trades in EUR/JPY , CHF/JPY and perhaps even GBP/JPY as “if/when” USD continues to fall….the E.U related currencies will take inflows so…..bigger moves to be seen in JPY vs Commods.

Still holding USD shorts – YES.

This is pretty “macro” here everyone, as at some point you’ve got to pick a side, plan your trades and put that plan into action.

If markets continue to trade “sideways” in general well……these trades could just as easily wallow/sit in the mud as the continued “distribution” here across the top goes on.

Broad strokes have me seeing a lower low now firmly established in SP 500 suggesting we bounce, and look for the ultimate short entry ( long JPY vs Commods, Short USD against E.U currencies ) over coming days.

If the media has us waiting until Sunday for more bullshit coming out of Greece – so be it. Small entries as mentioned above can be made prior…with thought in mind of either “adding to shorts higher” come Sun/Monday…..or getting some orders in “underneath” these pairs..allowing momentum to pick us up.

I see the table set for a significant move lower in risk appetite so….the breakdown above gives you the plan across most of the major currencies “pending” this plays out,,,,and “doesn’t” just continue trading back into the range.

Have fun. Enjoy some sun. Stay out of trouble if you can help it.

U.S Dollar To Bounce – Then Dive

The U.S.D short’s have been amazing, and the profits are in the bank.

Several of the usual trolls lurking ’round Kong have been silenced, and the world is a beautiful place, with both The British Pound as well The Australian Dollar looking a little “top-heavy” here.

I expect a modest bounce in USD and in turn, a pullback in oil and commodity related names in general.

The stock market? You can have it. If waking up every single day to this endless back n forth / see-saw is your idea of a good time…..all power to you. Having “not paid attention to it has been one of the most liberating moves of this entire 2015.

Stocks are going nowhere. Nowhere this month, nowhere next month and then down for the forseeable future.

The US Dollar now at 4 month lows will pop for a small correction “upward” here –  then she’s all down hill.

 

Booking Forex Profits – Interstellar Seamstress Needed

I’ve finally tracked down the few missing parts for the spaceship still parked on the rooftop, and plan on smuggling them out of Canada mid month June.

I’ve come in contact with some very “tech savvy Canucks” here as of late, and feel that lift off is now “imminent”.

Mrs. Kong has done a bang up job keeping the authorities at bay, as the craft itself has been difficult to disguise. The small crowds that gather out in the front yard have now been disbursed, thanks to a couple $20 Canadian Bills having been passed to my dear friends the “Policia”.

Oh how I love authority. Oh how I love the police. Such kind, warm-hearted gentleman – and only there to help.

Markets look like a runway. Flat as pancakes for you equity guys, while our short US Dollar trades add a whopping 10% over the past few weeks. Plan to book profits here again……and prepare for bounce/next leg down.

The next one takes equities with it.

The only missing piece now being these damn spacesuits. You know…..the moon landings back in the 60’s? Made of paper more or less – and wouldn’t have kept out a single ion of radiation ( of which space is filled ).

At least these days the technology exists. I’ve just got to track it down.

Book’em Dano!

Taking profits short USD today. Bounce then re enter short.

Placing “want ads” now – Interstellar Seamstress needed.

 

 

 

Don’t Go Chasing Waterfalls – Well Maybe This One

There is a potential USD breakdown in play here as we’ve been playing the short side lately – with great success.

Waiting for a bounce before re entering “short USD as well short risk in general” may not even be an option as USD pairs are moving fast and furious this morning.

You leg in……get a couple contracts here this morning long EUR, GBP short USD/CAD etc as to not miss potential “waterfalls” BUT…stay liquid enough to buy additional contracts “if” a bounce occurs over coming days. IT WON”T LAST LONG ENOUGH TO MATTER.

Average in for a medium term hold, or just a “great freakin trade” here short term.

Yellen openly suggests danger in equity prices………bubble popping time?

If you haven’t sold NetFlix by now……ugh.

Watch those little mining companies…lower USD means Gold and Silver UP.

 

 

 

Buy JPY – Don’t Be A Complete Moron

If you are only  “half a moron” O.K fine…….you’re allright.

But if you envision yourself as “full moron” well…….that’s your thing.

COMPLETE MORON…..and now I’m looking to punch you in the knee, spit in your ear, and very likely kick you in the face – as you flounder around…….. reaching for your retainer ( and your Ibankcoin log in info ).

This is truly “complete moron”.

You buy JPY here ( meaning you “short” JPY related pairs such as AUD/JPY etc..) and you go boat shopping.

You dump your winning trades NOW, and you get to cash NOW….you book profits NOW…you go boat shopping NOW!

For forex people….duuhh…short AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY,USD/JPY and every other JPY pair under the planet.

Abe won’t be thrilled.